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    Climate Change Ch. 19 mods 62-64

    Climate change

    In any crisis, the following steps might help you survive, thrive, or perhaps impact change:

    1. What is the crisis? What words define it? What is the lexicon?
    2. Why should I care? How does this impact me? How will it impact my kids/grandkids?
    3. What are the mechanisms of cause and effect?
    4. What impact timeline can I expect?
    5. What can I do: directly, locally, globally?
    6. How can my understanding of the situation help me impact the situation?

    “We are on the precipice of Hell”

    -Frontline video HEAT

    “Climate change is the biggest business opportunity in the history of Mankind”

    -Tito Jankoski, climate change activist, carbon sequestration pioneer, HPA ’05

    Linguist on climate change vs. climate crisis:

    https://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=123950399

    “Greenhouse”-why? how does a normal greenhouse work? what parts relate to which physical systems?

    Demo: car dashboard is dark, absorbs visible radiation passing through the car windshield, re-radiates at lower frequency/longer waves (heat), which is trapped by the glass windshield.

    glass=greenhouse gases (CO2, methane, water vapor)

    Is this always bad? See diagram:

    Click for full-size image

    Earth would be 0°C without any greenhouse effect

    These gases have different impact and lifespans:


    Click for full-size image

    Where have I seen these before? You might not, but your parents certainly did, about 30 years ago, when the ozone layer was being destroyed by refrigerants (gases we created called “Freons” we used in refrigerators, freezers and air conditioners)

    Without the ozone layer, everyone on the planet would suffer from UV radiation, causing skin cancers, plants would die, so would some life in the oceans. This was serious, causing an “ozone hole” over Antarctica:


    Here’s how we know we can act globally to avoid disaster:

    In 1997, most of the countries of the world met in Montreal Canada to create the Montreal Protocol, banning these CFC’s (chlorinated fluorocarbons) like Freon.

    Here’s how we know it worked:

    https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/aggi/



    Note the bottom graph. What do you see? When did things change?

    Here’s what the trend is for greenhouse gases:








    • The AGGI in 2019 was 1.45, which means that we’ve turned up the warming influence by 45% since 1990.
    • It took ~240 years for the AGGI to go from 0 to 1, i.e., to reach 100%, and 29 years for it to increase by another 45%.
    • In terms of CO2 equivalents, the atmosphere in 2019 contained 500 ppm, of which 410 is CO2 alone. The rest comes from other gases.
    • CO2 is by far the largest contributor to the AGGI in terms of both amount and rate of increase.
    • Note: The IPCC suggests that a constant concentration of CO2 alone at 550 ppm would lead to an average increase in Earth’s temperature of ~3°C (5.4°F).

    NASA simulation:

    https://climate.nasa.gov/interactives/climate-time-machine

    NASA Eyes simulation:

    https://eyes.jpl.nasa.gov/eyes-on-the-earth.html

    Where is this stuff coming from?


    Ok, what gases are naturally sourced:

    Volcanic eruptions (complex, as the ash can actually block sunlight, temporarily cooling the planet-see Mt. Pinatubo)

    Decomposition/digestion (methane from termites and cow gas, or the truly horrific possibility of melting permafrost)

    Denitrification (wet soils, wetlands where NO3 turns into N2O)

    Evaporation/evapotranspiration (water vapor)

    Human (anthropogenic) causes:

    Fossil fuels use (coal, then oil then natural gas)

    Deforestation

    Agriculture (nitrogen fertilizers)

    Landfills (methane again)



    Two graphs are important to you:

    Here is the pattern of CO2 measured at Mauna Loa since 1958, the famous “Keeling curve”




    Here is the historical record, from ice cores and other data:



    Note the date...
    Where is this coming from, by nation?


    Why? US burns fossil fuels like maniacs, China is opening two coal fired power plants EACH WEEK, India is making concrete by heating CaCO3, releasing CO2 to make CaO (“Portland cement”)

    So what?

    Global warming will change the global temperature, impacting weather, sea levels, severe storms, glaciers, water and food supplies

    High CO2 causes ocean acidification, killing corals, and impacting all life in the ocean, a major absorber of CO2 and source of food

    Finally, high CO2 levels make us stupid. Anything over 800 ppm has been demonstrated to impact learning, memory and complex thought. There is no escaping this, much like the ozone crisis of the 1980’s

    Here’s how warm it is getting:


    Click for full-size image
    How do we know CO2 and temp are related?

    Check this out:


    Click for full-size image

    Here’s what this will look like when you are having grandchildren:

    The first picture is 2020-2029, the right side is 2100, when you are in your 90’s:


    Click for full-size image
    These assume a constant rate, which is unlikely if the permafrost begins to melt, releasing more methane, and the polar ice caps melt, changing the albedo (remember Albus Dumbledore).

    This is an example of a positive feedback loop.

    n.b. most folks believe that ocean levels will rise from the melting ice caps and glaciers. This is only a small impact, the greatest impact is that water expands when it warms, so ALL of the water in the ocean is expanding at once, and the ocean is several miles deep around the world-think of that!


    https://fitzlab.shinyapps.io/cityapp/

    What can we do?

    The IPCC (intergovernmental panel on climate change) inspired the 1997 Kyoto Protocols, which the US has not followed.

    Here’s what they say:

    Click for full-size image

    So, back to our questions:

    1. What is the crisis? What words define it? What is the lexicon?
    2. Why should I care? How does this impact me? How will it impact my kids/grandkids?
    3. What are the mechanisms of cause and effect?
    4. What impact timeline can I expect?
    5. What can I do: directly, locally, globally?
    6. How can my understanding of the situation help me impact the situation?
    ENERGY!
    Why is energy such an important part of your solution?

    Comments

    /groups/apenvironmentalscience/search/index.rss?tag=hotlist/groups/apenvironmentalscience/search/?tag=hotWhat’s HotHotListHot!?tag=hot6/groups/apenvironmentalscience/sidebar/HotListadminadmin2020-08-19 15:43:59+00:002020-08-19 15:43:59updated30adminadmin2011-09-08 21:36:21+00:002011-09-08 21:36:21updated29adminadmin2011-08-24 23:20:40+00:002011-08-24 23:20:40updated28adminadmin2011-08-24 22:42:36+00:002011-08-24 22:42:36updated27adminadmin2011-08-22 02:41:09+00:002011-08-22 02:41:09updated26adminadmin2011-08-22 02:40:02+00:002011-08-22 02:40:02updated25adminadmin2011-08-21 20:39:11+00:002011-08-21 20:39:11updated24adminadmin2011-08-21 20:30:42+00:002011-08-21 20:30:42updated23adminadmin2011-08-21 20:30:13+00:002011-08-21 20:30:13updated22adminadmin2011-08-21 20:25:48+00:002011-08-21 20:25:48updated21adminadmin2011-08-21 20:25:18+00:002011-08-21 20:25:18updated20adminadmin2011-08-21 00:22:12+00:002011-08-21 00:22:12updated19adminadmin2011-08-21 00:18:56+00:002011-08-21 00:18:56updated18adminadmin2011-08-21 00:15:43+00:002011-08-21 00:15:43updated17adminadmin2011-08-21 00:12:37+00:002011-08-21 00:12:37updated16adminadmin2011-08-21 00:12:02+00:002011-08-21 00:12:02updated15adminadmin2011-08-20 23:59:41+00:002011-08-20 23:59:41updated14Added tag - hotadminadmin2011-08-20 23:59:38+00:002011-08-20 23:59:38addTag13Added tag - conservationadminadmin2011-08-20 23:59:32+00:002011-08-20 23:59:32addTag12Added tag - critical thinkingadminadmin2011-08-20 23:59:19+00:002011-08-20 23:59:19addTag11Added tag - ch1adminadmin2011-08-20 23:59:08+00:002011-08-20 23:59:08addTag10Added tag - sustainabilityadminadmin2011-08-20 23:59:05+00:002011-08-20 23:59:05addTag9adminadmin2011-08-20 20:47:39+00:002011-08-20 20:47:39updated8adminadmin2011-08-20 20:46:15+00:002011-08-20 20:46:15updated7adminadmin2011-08-20 20:43:07+00:002011-08-20 20:43:07updated6adminadmin2011-08-20 19:14:13+00:002011-08-20 19:14:13updated5adminadmin2011-08-20 19:11:26+00:002011-08-20 19:11:26updated4adminadmin2011-08-20 18:59:57+00:002011-08-20 18:59:57updated3adminadmin2011-08-20 18:56:59+00:002011-08-20 18:56:59updated2First createdadminadmin2010-11-07 01:41:28+00:002010-11-07 01:41:28created1wiki2020-08-19T15:43:59+00:00groups/apenvironmentalscience/wiki/welcomeFalseCh01 Overview/groups/apenvironmentalscience/wiki/welcome/Ch01_Overview.htmladmin30 updatesCh01 Overview Welcome to our APES wiki. You should be able to do the following after logging in with your account: To create a new page, click the ...Falseadmin2020-08-19T15:43:59+00:00adminadmin2013-02-05 02:24:03+00:002013-02-05 02:24:03updated4Added tag - hotadminadmin2013-02-05 02:24:02+00:002013-02-05 02:24:02addTag3adminadmin2013-02-05 02:05:35+00:002013-02-05 02:05:35updated2First createdadminadmin2013-02-05 02:03:35+00:002013-02-05 02:03:35created1wiki2013-02-05T02:24:03+00:00groups/apenvironmentalscience/wiki/394a8FalseEnergy notes/groups/apenvironmentalscience/wiki/394a8/Energy_notes.htmladmin4 updatesEnergy notes Week of 2.4.13: energy wrap-up e2 video: coal vs. nuclear in class AP exams: FRQ 2002.1 2004.2 2006.1 2007.2 2008.1 ...Falseadmin2013-02-05T02:24:03+00:00adminadmin2013-02-05 02:23:20+00:002013-02-05 02:23:20updated6Added tag - hotadminadmin2013-02-05 02:23:18+00:002013-02-05 02:23:18addTag5adminadmin2013-02-05 02:23:12+00:002013-02-05 02:23:12updated4adminadmin2013-02-05 02:21:48+00:002013-02-05 02:21:48updated3adminadmin2013-02-05 02:20:26+00:002013-02-05 02:20:26updated2First createdadminadmin2013-02-05 02:06:00+00:002013-02-05 02:06:00created1wiki2013-02-05T02:23:20+00:00groups/apenvironmentalscience/wiki/c360bFalseFeb-May plan/groups/apenvironmentalscience/wiki/c360b/FebMay_plan.htmladmin6 updatesFeb-May plan 1. conclusion of energy chapters (see previous wiki) 2. GCC AP questions FRQ: 2006.2 2005.3 2005.4 2007.3 ...Falseadmin2013-02-05T02:23:20+00:00adminadmin2012-03-07 05:53:55+00:002012-03-07 05:53:55updated14adminadmin2012-03-07 05:43:38+00:002012-03-07 05:43:38updated13adminadmin2012-03-07 05:41:35+00:002012-03-07 05:41:35updated12adminadmin2012-03-07 05:38:57+00:002012-03-07 05:38:57updated11Added tag - hotadminadmin2012-03-07 05:38:55+00:002012-03-07 05:38:55addTag10adminadmin2012-03-07 05:36:47+00:002012-03-07 05:36:47updated9adminadmin2012-03-07 05:22:26+00:002012-03-07 05:22:26updated8adminadmin2012-03-07 05:20:01+00:002012-03-07 05:20:01updated7adminadmin2012-03-07 05:18:58+00:002012-03-07 05:18:58updated6adminadmin2012-03-07 04:58:55+00:002012-03-07 04:58:55updated5adminadmin2012-03-07 04:57:33+00:002012-03-07 04:57:33updated4adminadmin2012-03-07 04:56:53+00:002012-03-07 04:56:53updated3adminadmin2012-03-07 04:54:20+00:002012-03-07 04:54:20updated2First createdadminadmin2012-03-07 04:53:33+00:002012-03-07 04:53:33created1weblog2012-03-07T05:53:55+00:00groups/apenvironmentalscience/weblog/de030FalseGreen Apple/groups/apenvironmentalscience/weblog/de030/Green_Apple.htmladmin14 updatesGreen Apple Team, Please watch this video about NYC: Trailer: http://www.pbs.org/e2/episodes/101_the_green_apple_trailer.html On the server: http://physics.hpa...Falseadmin2012-03-07T05:53:55+00:00adminadmin2011-09-13 19:08:24+00:002011-09-13 19:08:24updated4Added tag - hotadminadmin2011-09-13 19:08:22+00:002011-09-13 19:08:22addTag3adminadmin2011-09-13 19:08:10+00:002011-09-13 19:08:10updated2First createdadminadmin2011-09-13 19:04:30+00:002011-09-13 19:04:30created1weblog2011-09-13T19:08:24+00:00groups/apenvironmentalscience/weblog/4ecddFalseQuestions for Wednesday, wiki adds/groups/apenvironmentalscience/weblog/4ecdd/Questions_for_Wednesday_wiki_adds.htmladmin4 updatesQuestions for Wednesday, wiki adds Team, I'd like to try something for class tomorrow: each of you to create a question from chapter 3, and email it to me by this evening (Tuesday). Pl...Falseadmin2011-09-13T19:08:24+00:00hot/groups/apenvironmentalscience/search/index.rss?sort=modifiedDate&kind=all&sortDirection=reverse&excludePages=wiki/welcomelist/groups/apenvironmentalscience/search/?sort=modifiedDate&kind=all&sortDirection=reverse&excludePages=wiki/welcomeRecent ChangesRecentChangesListUpdates?sort=modifiedDate&kind=all&sortDirection=reverse&excludePages=wiki/welcome0/groups/apenvironmentalscience/sidebar/RecentChangesListmodifiedDateallRecent ChangesRecentChangesListUpdateswiki/welcomeNo recent changes.reverse5searchlist/groups/apenvironmentalscience/calendar/Upcoming EventsUpcomingEventsListEvents1Getting events…